For the first time since the war began 105 days ago, the end is genuinely within reach — and still maddeningly out of grasp. Early Saturday, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, the key mediator, said a peace deal was closer "than ever before," with finalization "likely expected in the next 24 hours" and an electronic signing to follow. Yet within hours, Iran's foreign ministry signaled the deal would likely not be signed Sunday — and U.S. forces shot down several Iranian attack drones in the Strait of Hormuz this morning, drawing a "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE" response from President Trump. Oil is pricing the optimism anyway: Brent sits near $86, its lowest since early March, after a draft 14-point agreement surfaced committing Iran to reopen the Strait within 30 days.

The contradictions are the story. Pakistan says 24 hours; Iran says not Sunday. Trump says settlement; U.S. forces down Iranian drones the same morning. A final draft text is reportedly agreed even as Tehran withholds formal approval. This is what the end of a war looks like when neither side wants to appear to have conceded first — genuinely close, and genuinely capable of slipping again, as it has at every prior "one-yard line" moment since April.

Note Goh's timeline caveat: even after a signed deal, Sparta estimates three to six months to return to status quo — production restarts, refinery repairs, insurance normalization, and the queue of 800+ stranded tankers. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's June outlook makes the same assumption, projecting Brent averaging around $105 in June and July with Hormuz shipping resuming in Q3 but not reaching pre-conflict traffic until early 2027. The market is pricing the announcement. The economy will live with the transition. For mortgage rates, that means the disinflation dividend from peace arrives gradually through Q3 and Q4 — not the day after a signing ceremony.

Freddie Mac's weekly survey, released yesterday, put the 30-year at 6.52% — up from 6.48% but still 32 basis points below the 6.84% of a year ago. Chief Economist Sam Khater's framing was notable for its optimism: "Stronger employment momentum has helped existing home sales reach a five-month high. Importantly, we're seeing homebuyers look past the short-term rate fluctuations and actively enter the market, signaling renewed confidence in homeownership opportunities."

The daily trackers tell the forward-looking story: NerdWallet's 30-year APR held at 6.39% Friday morning — three basis points below a week ago — as bond markets began pricing the peace developments. If the deal signs this weekend, Monday morning's bond open could be the largest single-day rate move of the year. The mechanism: peace → oil falls → inflation expectations fall → 10-year Treasury yield falls → mortgage rates follow within days. The reverse mechanism is equally live if the weekend produces another round of strikes instead of a signing — and this morning's drone shootdown is a reminder that outcome is still on the table.

As promised in Wednesday's flash: here is the complete guide to the June 17 decision. The rate hold at 3.50–3.75% is a foregone conclusion. The statement language, the dot plot, and Warsh's first press conference are the live events. Three scenarios, ordered by what they do to your rate sheet:

The wildcard that scrambles all three: the peace deal's timing. If a signed agreement lands before Wednesday, the committee meets with oil at multi-month lows and the single largest inflation driver visibly resolving. That strengthens Warsh's hand enormously — it converts Scenario A from a gamble into a defensible reading of the data. If the weekend deal collapses into renewed strikes, Scenario C's odds roughly double. Rarely has a Fed meeting been this hostage to events outside the building.

Buyers in process: Talk to your loan officer about float-down options before Wednesday. If your lender offers a lock with a float-down provision, this is the textbook week for it — you're protected against Scenario C while keeping a claim on Scenario A. If you're shopping but not under contract, get fully underwritten now; the buyers who closed at May's six-month-high pace were the ones who were ready before the window opened.

Homeowners eyeing a refi: Your trigger discipline matters most this week. Decide your number now — for most borrowers above 7%, anything with a 6.2-handle justifies the paperwork. If Scenario A plays out, that number could appear with little warning, and refi windows in this market have lasted days, not weeks. Have your documents staged.

Agents: Monday's issue gave you the bifurcation map. This week's assignment is simpler: call every pre-approved buyer in your pipeline before Wednesday and make sure their approval is current. If rates break lower Thursday morning, the listings that have been sitting through June will see multiple-offer activity by the weekend — and stale pre-approvals lose those races.

One hundred and five days ago, a war began that added a full percentage point of inflation, froze the Fed, and held mortgage rates hostage to a waterway eight thousand miles from your closing table. This weekend, that war may finally end — or slip away one more time. Four days from now, a new Fed chairman holds his first press conference with the outcome in hand. The two events together will set the cost of housing finance for the rest of 2026.

Our honest read: the deal is more likely than not to sign, the Fed is more likely than not to hold carefully rather than pivot, and the meaningful rate relief — if it comes — arrives through July and August as cheaper oil works through the inflation data, not as a Thursday-morning thunderbolt. But the tail scenarios in both directions are fatter than they've been all year. Position for the base case. Be ready for the tails.

A note on timing: this issue reaches you Saturday — a day later than our usual Friday cadence — because the Iran story was moving too fast to commit to print. With the deal still unsigned and the picture shifting by the hour, a Saturday read reflects reality better than a stale Friday one would have. Next issue: Monday, June 15 — the FOMC Eve Special, with the weekend's deal outcome and final positioning ahead of Wednesday. If a signing happens, we'll publish a flash edition the same day. Thank you for reading The Mortgage Lens.